There can be no doubt that the 2026 round of Senedd Elections were the most significant in the history of Welsh devolution, with huge changes across the board.
They also brought to a close more than a quarter of a century of Welsh Labour rule in the Senedd, with the party which had so dominated Welsh politics, reduced to nine seats, less than 10% of the available total.
For the Welsh Conservatives, although their electoral performance may have exceeded some expectations, it was also a very difficult election, with their number of seats falling to just seven.
No outright majority
These events spoke to the challenges facing two of the large established parties not just across Wales, but also across the United Kingdom.
For Plaid Cymru it was a very successful election of course, although at 43 seats they fell short of securing an outright majority. The new party on the scene, Reform UK Wales, went from two seats at the last Senedd to 34 at this the seventh Senedd, a remarkable achievement for an emergent party which now forms the official opposition.
We also have our first Green MSs in Cardiff Bay with two elected, whilst for the Welsh Liberal Democrats it must have been frustrating to only manage to tread water and retain their one seat.
As had been expected, the fifth and sixth place seats in many constituencies proved to be very competitive, with only a few hundred votes separating the winners from the losers in many instances.
New system
The 2026 Senedd Elections were of course contested using a new electoral system, a purely proportional arrangement, and it also saw an additional 36 members returned to Cardiff Bay.
Seeking elected office is not an easy thing to do - particularly in the current climate - and we all have to acknowledge the personal sacrifices made by candidates, particularly in today’s age of social media.
For those elected to serve in Cardiff Bay, NFU Cymru has offered its congratulations, and in the same way, to those who were unsuccessful we have offered our commiserations.
This week we have seen Plaid Cymru form a minority government having fallen six seats short of the magic 49 seats, they have acknowledged how they will therefore need to reach out to other parties on an issue-by-issue basis.
First things first
The first job for new First Minister of Wales Rhun ap Iorwerth in leading the new Welsh Government was to appoint colleagues to government. It is noteworthy that under the new expanded Senedd, the number of individual MS who can sit in Welsh Government rises from 12 previously to 17 now (this in addition to the First Minister and Counsel General).
While this gave the new First Minister a bit more latitude to increase the size of his Cabinet and perhaps assign Ministers to portfolios which might be neater and more focused, allowing the individuals to concentrate their energy on one more discrete subject area, the new First Minister did not use the full quota of 17. Instead, he appointed nine MSs to Cabinet Minister positions, with a further four handed Deputy Minister roles.
Farming portfolio
Of most relevance to NFU Cymru members will be the appointment of Llyr Gruffydd MS to the position of Cabinet Minister for Rural Resilience and Sustainability.
Having previously acted as the party’s Shadow Spokesperson for Rural Affairs, he brings a wealth of experience to the position and is someone that NFU Cymru has enjoyed a good working relationship with over the years. The union has welcomed his appointment and is seeking to meet with Llyr Gruffydd in his new position as Cabinet Minister as soon as possible.
There is a great deal of common ground between Plaid Cymru’s manifesto and our own, so we look forward to the opportunity to work together with the new Cabinet Minister on these shared ambitions.
Cross-party working
There can be no doubt that the mechanics of working as a minority government will present challenges at times, particularly when it comes to matters such as passing key pieces of legislation and of course during crucial votes on the budget.
Not being able to pass a budget or transact key business through a parliament is fatal to any administration, and so there will have to be cross-party working on these matters, as the First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth has alluded to.
Governing as a minority is not perhaps as difficult as a cursory consideration of the mathematics might suggest.
Strong party discipline by the governing party will of course be key to running a successful minority administration, and whilst in a minority scenario the sum-total of opposition party seats will always be greater than those of the governing party, if the opposition parties are to hold any government’s feet to the fire, they must be able to cohere as a voting bloc, something which is far from being a given.
Significantly, the fact that the Greens and Liberal Democrats only hold three seats between them means that Plaid Cymru will have to work with at least one of the other parties from time to time to get business through the Senedd.
Legislative programme
One of the first actions of a new Welsh Government is likely to be the publication of a legislative programme, setting out essentially what they want to do as a government over the next 12 months or so.
This is something we expect to see published in the coming weeks. For an incoming administration this will be largely about taking forward manifesto commitments. Into the autumn, we will see the new government setting its first budget, and a crucial early test will be to see how it goes about getting it passed through the Senedd.
For NFU Cymru, there is now an intense period of getting to know new MSs, and also renewing our relationships with those who were returned, some of whom of course now sit in government. We will of course be looking to set up early and regular dialogue with MSs, party leaders, relevant Cabinet Minister portfolio holders in government and, of course, the new First Minister as soon as possible.
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