Welsh Government must act on negative economic impacts shown in Sustainable Farming Scheme modelling

30 September 2025

Welsh landscape

NFU Cymru is calling on Welsh Government to commit to evolve the Sustainable Farming Scheme following economic modelling estimating the scheme will have negative impacts on Welsh farming.

The union says that this work is imperative to ensure that its ambition for the continued growth of the Welsh food and farming sector is met. Welsh Government has today (Tuesday 30 September) published its evidence base for the Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS).

Economic modelling

Economic modelling undertaken for Welsh Government on the SFS universal actions estimates;

  • reductions of around 5% in livestock numbers
  • 4% reduction in labour on farm
  • 16% reduction in farm business income.

While this latest independent report estimates the level of the negative impacts of the revised SFS proposals have reduced by some margin in comparison to the ‘shocking scenario’ anticipated in the previous accompanying impact assessment, Welsh farming union NFU Cymru says that the new estimated outcomes remain ‘extremely concerning’.

NFU Cymru President Aled Jones said Welsh Government must act on the newly published information not only in the interests of Welsh farming businesses, but also rural communities and those whose jobs in Wales’ £10billion food and drink industry are reliant on a thriving agricultural sector.

General framework

Welsh Government launched its revised SFS back in July this year. NFU Cymru supports the general framework of the scheme, including the weighting of funding towards the universal layer, along with the inclusion of a social value payment. The union stressed, however, that without the publication of a full impact assessment and modelling, it was impossible to understand the impact on Welsh farming businesses and the wider supply chain. Based on the information published today, the union is repeating its calls for Welsh Government to take action to counter those negative effects on income, jobs and production.

NFU Cymru President Aled Jones said: “The economic modelling estimates a reduction in the number of jobs, income and production when compared to the previous iteration of the modelling, however from our perspective the numbers projected this time around remain extremely concerning. There is, therefore, more work to do to support Welsh farming, as well as the businesses and communities that we underpin, alongside securing the critical mass of production from our farms that supports the £10 billion food sector in Wales.

Review and address

“The Welsh Government SFS announcement ahead of the summer recess included many positive changes to the SFS scheme design, including the important addition of the social value payment NFU Cymru had lobbied so hard for. Such changes reflected the work undertaken over the past seven years, in particular since the establishment of the Ministerial roundtable and sub-groups, to ensure that the wider benefits provided by farming are recognised and valued.

“NFU Cymru is looking to government to commit to use the information published today to review and address elements that negatively impact on income, jobs and production levels. We highlight the need for Welsh Government to urgently work with the farming industry to bring forward proposals under the optional layer of the SFS that support farm efficiency, productivity and increase profitability and the sustainability of farming businesses.

Economic stability

“We have always maintained that the SFS should provide at least the same level of economic stability to Welsh farming, the supply chain and our rural communities as the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) does currently. A move to a new scheme should not leave farmers financially worse off. We are clear that a properly resourced universal layer and social value payment must, therefore, continue to be at the heart of the SFS both now and in the future.

“We look to the next Welsh Government for an ongoing commitment to maintain, as a minimum, the current 70:30 budget split between the universal and optional /collaborative layers. Looking ahead, the next government should increase this budget to a minimum of £500m to take account of inflation and to help meet our shared ambitions for food, climate, environment, communities and language.

Tree cover

“The removal of the well-documented 10% tree cover requirement has been a significant step forward. The scheme requirement for 10% habitat remains an area that we believe needs to be kept under review, both in terms of the conditions attached to the habitat classifications and through an expansion of the range of temporary habitat options available to all farming businesses. “The new scheme is a very significant change for farmers.

"We remain concerned about the level of detail, constraints, administration, costs and bureaucracy attached to the SFS which is significant and far greater than anything seen before. As the scheme reaches implementation stage, we are seeking reassurances from Welsh Government that Rural Payments Wales (RPW) will adopt an advisory-led approach to delivery and seek to minimise the stress and anxiety that farmers experience at inspection and the disproportionate system of penalties.

Independent review group needed

“More broadly, NFU Cymru continues to lobby for an independent review group to consider the cumulative burden of regulation, red-tape and bureaucracy facing the agricultural sector. Such a review needs to be ambitious and all-encompassing, encouraging and supporting an enabling policy, regulatory and planning framework for Welsh farming.

“NFU Cymru will now take the time to further examine the new evidence base. In the coming weeks, we will be meeting the Deputy First Minister to raise the issues we have identified. We will continue to do all we can to ensure that Welsh Government’s agricultural policy provides the stability needed for farming families so they can continue to provide high quality food, continue to deliver for our environment and underpin our rural communities, culture and Welsh language.”

NFU Cymru is urging all farmers to consider the revised SFS and payment rates by utilising key tools such as the ‘ready reckoner’, as well as completing the data confirmation exercise which remains open until 31st October. More supporting information, as well as dates for NFU Cymru’s remaining SFS surgeries being held across Wales, can be found on the NFU Cymru website.


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