The guidance in the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) fourth carbon budget for Wales, published Wednesday 14 May, proposes Welsh Government ‘support farmers and rural communities to diversify their income away from livestock farming and towards woodland creation and peatland restoration.’ The CCC report’s balanced pathway for agriculture and land use claims a 19% reduction in Welsh livestock numbers by 2033, compared to the size of the national herd in 2022 would, in part, help to deliver a combined emissions decrease of 39% to 2.9 MtCO2e, falling to 0.5 MtCO2e by 2050.
While the emphasis the report places on low-carbon farming techniques is an area where NFU Cymru agrees practicable improvements can be made, the union has refuted the report’s destocking proposals, stating this suggested metric does not accurately account for the true value and wide-ranging benefits of Wales’ livestock production systems.
Farming making positive progress
Commenting on the key measures identified within the report that combine to reduce emissions in agriculture, NFU Cymru President Aled Jones said: “Farming has already made positive progress in climate action and we recognise that there is still work to undertake to further reduce emissions whilst continuing to secure the supply of safe, high quality and affordable food from Wales and underpinning our rural communities, language and culture.
“The CCC’s balanced pathway suggests that uptake of low-carbon farming practices and technologies combine to reduce emissions by 51% in 2033. NFU Cymru recognises the contribution that low-carbon farming practices can make. This aligns with the detailed proposals put forward by NFU Cymru with industry partners for a fully funded low carbon farming framework in 2022, which regrettably Welsh Government has, to date, opted not to take forward.”
Fall in livestock numbers
NFU Cymru has robustly challenged and rejected the CCC’s position on livestock numbers and tree planting. NFU Cymru President Aled Jones said: “The committee’s expectations of decreased meat and dairy consumption and production differ significantly from NFU Cymru’s own view of the pathway for agriculture. We strongly reject this aspect of the CCC balanced pathway which suggests that the numbers of cattle and sheep should fall by 19% by 2033 compared to 2022. The report does not acknowledge the multi-faceted benefits of livestock farming to Wales’ environment and biodiversity, nor does it truly reflect the detrimental impacts such destocking would have on tens of thousands of jobs on farm and the many more in the £9bn Welsh food and drink sector, our rural communities, culture, landscape and the Welsh language, or the offshoring of production.
"The committee’s expectations of decreased meat and dairy consumption and production differ significantly from NFU Cymru’s own view of the pathway for agriculture. We strongly reject this aspect of the CCC balanced pathway which suggests that the numbers of cattle and sheep should fall by 19% by 2033 compared to 2022."
Aled Jones, NFU Cymru President
“NFU Cymru recognises that tree planting has a role to play, indeed the union put its Growing Together targeted tree planting strategy forward to Welsh Government almost four years ago. However, the committee’s vision of supporting farmers and rural communities to diversify their income away from livestock farming and towards woodland creation and management - which, they say, offers the largest share of emissions reduction in the land use sector - is challenged by the evidence on tree planting. The report suggests woodland creation rates rise to 9,800 hectares per year by 2036, with woodland cover reaching 26% or 208,000 hectares by 2050.
"However, evidence submitted to Welsh Government’s Carbon Sequestration Evidence Review Panel last year shows that woodland creation is not the panacea when it comes to carbon capture. The science in this area suggests the carbon benefits of tree planting are variable and dependent on a range of factors such as species, site, soils, growth rates and the final use of timber.
"Welsh soils are an important carbon store and soil carbon changes are variable when creating woodlands on grassland / permanent pasture. Research undertaken by the ERAMMP programme, for example, showed that for new broadleaf woodland during the period 2020-2050 the CO2 emissions arising from losses of carbon stocks in soil almost completely offset the carbon sequestration in trees, deadwood and litter.
Farmers part of the solution
“NFU Cymru will continue to engage with the CCC and Welsh Government, the latter who will ultimately make decisions on the exact pathway and policies to meet any targets. The CCC report makes reference to Port Talbot’s steelworks and the mistakes that were made – and the negative economic and social impacts suffered - in its well-publicised transition to an electric furnace. NFU Cymru has always highlighted that farmers are a key part of the solution to tackling the impacts of climate change; however, we are clear that lessons must be learnt and climate targets should not cause similar harm to another iconic industry of Wales.”