The model, being developed jointly by SRUC and University of Nottingham, aims to be the first to include farmers’ own preferences and decision-making as a separate element in modelling national cattle disease control.
Input will be collected through a questionnaire which offers cattle keepers a range of imaginary scenarios and asks what they would do next. Their answers will then be linked to models of pathogen spread to predict how quickly the disease might decline—or increase—based on different control circumstances.
Costly
University of Nottingham’s Dr Marnie Brennan, the project lead, says BVD is very costly to farmers because of the way it supresses immunity, which usually shows up as cows not-in-calf and calves which are more susceptible to respiratory disease or scours.
“However, it’s also very eradicable,” explains Dr Brennan. “So the Government-led activities now underway to eradicate BVD in Wales offer a unique chance to test the accuracy of the model against the results in the field. This will then help to improve confidence in the model when applied to other diseases.
Welsh views needed
“Participants so far have mostly been from Scotland and England, but we really need to hear the views of Welsh cattle keepers too. Ideally, we’d have been able to offer the survey in Welsh to support this, but it’s not been possible due to the exercise it contains. Nevertheless we hope Welsh farmers will be willing to participate in English as it’s very important we hear their voices,” she adds.
Dr Neil Paton from the Royal Veterinary College, who sits on the model’s advisory panel, sees the potential for the model to support eradication efforts in Wales by simulating different combinations of incentives and penalties associated with control of the disease.
“Just to emphasise, this model doesn’t change our current course of action at ground level, in terms of requirements to test annually then act on the results,” explains Dr Paton.
“But as the scheme progresses and the prevalence of BVD changes, it could prove very useful in predicting what outcome different measures will produce. This is why it would be very useful to see the views of Welsh cattle farmers being added to the model through the questionnaire.”
For a summary of the project and wider changes to BVD control programmes across UK and Ireland, visit www.bvdplatform.org.
Contact Amy Jackson for more information: [email protected]