AI is not just a problem for the UK or EU, its a global one.
Closure of export markets is common place when a country suffers an outbreak of Avian Influenza. This is because importing countries seek protection from disease in their domestic supply chains.
Existing trade bans on UK poultry, remain in place in Australia, Japan, Kenya, Singapore, South Africa and St Vincent. The United Arab Emirates is banning poultry from England only, whilst Hong Kong, Turkey and Russia are taking a regional approach, banning products only from in infected region, Lancashire.
Bans on exports cause significant issues right through the supply chain, affecting breeders (who cannot export hatching eggs) right through to processors exporting final product for human consumption. This pressure is two fold. Domestically we have an increased amount of hatching eggs of which only a limited amount can be logistically accomodated. Any increased surplus that enters the UK market will subsequently lead to an increase in eggs and poultry meat which serves to surpress prices as thereare limited export prospects until further notice. Further afield, importing countries of hatching eggs and product fit for human consumption will suffer supply shortages which will increase prices paid for by consumers in their respective markets if they are unable to source alternative products.
Its worth noting that Germany and the Netherlands have also experienced numerous outbreaks of AI (High and Low path)over the past 12 months who respectively are large players in the in poultry industry.
In short, it creates volatility!
AI in the US
The July 2015 USDA Chicken and Eggs report indicates that total egg production in the U.S. is 10% lower, and layer placements are down 9% compared to July of last year. This is all as a direct result of the crippling High Path AI outbreak which spread across 21 US states from December 2014, affecting over 48 million birds?.
The value of turkey and laying hen losses is estimated at nearly 1.6 billion dollars, and economy-wide losses are estimated at 3.3 billion dollars, according to a July report from the Congressional Research Service.
The CRS report also highlights that the outbreak has impacted18 U.S. trading partners who have imposed bans on all shipments of U.S. poultry and products, and 38 trading partners have imposed partial, or regional, bans on shipments from states or parts of states with high path cases. China, Russia, and South Korea, three of the top 10 destinations for U.S. poultry meat in 2014, have banned all imports of U.S. poultry.
On a positive note, the last AI case detected in the US was the 17 June. A good period of hot weather has helped to decrease levels of the disease, however worries still remain on other potential outbreaks in the coming months as wild birds start their migrationsouth as winter approaches.
Beyond the UK, Europe and US
Over the previous week, three poultry farms in southern Taiwan have reported avian flu infections and all the birds at two duck farms, in Chiayi and Pingtung counties, as well as a chicken farm in Yunlin, have been culled, the Bureau of Animal and Plant Inspection has reported. This follows another report of AI in the country a few weeks ago.
The key message here for the poultry supply chain, is that for the forseeable future, AI remains a serious threat to poultry production globally. Only the highest levels of bio-security throughout the chain will ensure the prevention of future of mass outbreak situations. Thankfully the UK has very good levels of bio-security which has meant that all cases experienced in the UK have had limited impact. Unfortunately, irrespective of how limited (in bird numbers or premises affected) each case is, the ramifications for the wider industry are extremely severe each and every time it occurs.